全球流动性已经放缓,但对人工智能人才的竞争并未减弱

Global Mobility Has Slowed, but the Race for AI Talent Has Not

来源智库: 波士顿咨询公司(BCG) 国家: 美国 发布时间: 2026-06-10
研究领域: 国际事务人才流动科技创新政策移民政策人工智能发展高等教育与研究人才
情感分析: 中立 涉及中国

报告封面

中文摘要

本报告由波士顿咨询公司(BCG)发布,题为《全球流动性放缓,但人工智能人才竞争未止》,基于其2026年第二季度‘顶尖人才追踪器’数据,分析了全球超过2.2亿高技能人才的流动趋势。报告显示,2025年全球高技能人才的跨境流动出现显著下滑,总数从2024年的370万降至330万,降幅达11.6%,其中STEM人才下降13%,人工智能人才下降12%,而拥有博士学位的研究人员流动量更是锐减19%,为各类别中降幅最大。这一趋势反映出全球人才流动整体降温,尤其在高端科研和技术前沿领域。传统英语国家如加拿大、英国和澳大利亚持续失去人才市场份额,英国甚至面临被阿联酋超越的风险。相比之下,美国在高技能、STEM和研究人才方面均扩大了领先地位,分别增长4.0和1.2个百分点,显示出其强大的吸引力,尽管在AI人才流入方面未能进一步拉开与其他国家的距离,暗示该领域的全球竞争日趋白热化。阿联酋成为新兴热点,吸引了近19.4万名高技能人才,沙特阿拉伯则展现出最强的人才留存能力。印度仍是全球最大净人才输出国。报告特别新增对博士级研究人才的追踪,强调其作为未来科学创新风向标的重要性。最后,报告呼吁各国政府和企业采取系统性战略,包括设立专门机构、优化移民流程、加强公私合作,以应对动态变化的人才竞争格局。

关键词

全球人才流动 人工智能人才 研究人员流动 美国人才政策 中国

关键词涉及内容

1. 全球人才流动主要内容:报告指出2025年全球高技能人才跨国流动总量下降11.6%,为近年来首次显著收缩,尤其在STEM、人工智能和研究人员群体中更为明显。美国在多数类别中扩大优势,而加拿大、英国和澳大利亚持续流失市场份额。
2. 人工智能人才主要内容:人工智能人才流动同比下降12%,是下降幅度最大的技术领域之一。美国未在此类人才流入中扩大领先优势,表明全球对AI人才的竞争更加激烈。阿联酋、西班牙、法国等国正在提升吸引力。
3. 研究人员流动主要内容:拥有博士学位的研究人员流动量下降19%,降幅最大,显示高端科研人才国际迁移显著降温。英语国家传统目的地影响力减弱,欧洲大陆国家如德国、法国、瑞士表现更稳定。
4. 美国人才政策主要内容:尽管美国实施更严格的移民政策,但其仍吸引大量高技能人才,得益于强大的薪酬、创新生态和职业机会。美国在高技能、STEM和研究人才方面市场份额上升,但在AI领域未能进一步拉开差距。
5. 中国主要内容:中国出现在数据图表中作为人才流入和流出的目的地之一,但报告未对其政策或趋势进行深入分析,仅作为全球比较的一部分。

主要观点

1. 2025年全球高技能人才跨国流动显著收缩,总量下降11.6%,其中研究人才流动降幅达19%,为各类别中最高,反映高端人才流动遇冷。
2. 美国在高技能、STEM和研究人才方面持续扩大领先优势,尽管移民政策趋严,但其经济机会和创新生态仍具强大吸引力。
3. 在人工智能人才竞争中,美国未能进一步拉开与其他国家的差距,表明全球AI人才争夺战日益激烈且格局分散。
4. 传统英语国家如加拿大、英国和澳大利亚持续流失人才市场份额,而阿联酋、沙特阿拉伯等中东国家正迅速崛起为新兴人才目的地。
5. 博士级研究人才的流动是未来科技创新的先行指标,其大幅回落提示全球基础研究合作可能面临挑战。
6. 国家开放度与科技领导力、企业价值创造呈正相关,开放人才政策有助于提升国家生产力和企业竞争力。
7. 各国需建立系统性人才战略,包括设立专职机构、整合招聘与培训资源、优化移民流程,并推动公私协作以增强全球人才吸引力。

全文内容

When it comes to international talent mobility, eyes are on the US, where the second Trump administration has driven tighter and more selective immigration policy. Still, BCG’s latest review (through the end of 2025) shows that the US gained share in three of four categories—adding 4.0 percentage points in highly skilled talent, 2.6 in STEM talent, and 1.2 in research talent. AI talent is the exception: it's the one talent category where the US ceded ground, signaling a more contested race for AI talent globally. (See “About Our Research.” There, we also explain the addition of a new category of highly skilled talent to the groups that we track: research talent.)Broadening the view, our research revealed a sharp drop in international talent mobility overall. In our last edition, we highlighted the first decline in mobility since 2020: In our data through August 2025, international movement among highly skilled individuals dropped by 8.5% relative to the prior year. That means that about 220,000 fewer highly skilled individuals relocated internationally with the intent to work in their new country long term or permanently. This drop followed a trend that was already in motion in our prior review, when mobility continued to grow but slowed by 0.4% from 2023 to 2024.That trend has gained momentum. Following a methodology refresh that expanded our tracked population to 221 million, our latest review shows the slowdown deepened in 2025. Cross-border moves by highly skilled professionals fell from 3.7 million in 2024 to 3.3 million last year—a drop of 11.6%. That translates into roughly 430,000 fewer movers than in 2024. The drop was sharper for specialist talent: STEM at –13%, AI at –12%, and research at –19%. 1 / 13 Weekly Insights Subscription Stay ahead with BCG insights on international businessManage SubscriptionsKey Developments by CountryAs noted, despite the overall slowdown, the US has held and even expanded its lead in most categories, attracting the highest numbers of internationally mobile professionals. This suggests that pull factors (compensation, opportunity, ecosystem depth) still outweigh policy headwinds for highly skilled workers.Other attractive targets for talent on the move are the UAE, which drew nearly 194,000 highly skilled workers, thus adding 0.8 points of market share, and Saudi Arabia, which recorded the highest retention ratio (2.6x) of any major destination. Hong Kong, Sweden, and Japan posted high gains in talent inflows as well.India ranks among the top-three destinations for STEM and AI talent in this edition. However, the largest source countries for these inflows are the US, UK, UAE, and Canada — suggesting this is largely nonresident Indians (NRIs) returning home rather than broad-based attraction of new foreign talent.Canada, the UK, and European countries experienced the sharpest drops in talent inflows. In highly skilled talent, Canada dropped from a top-three target to seventh place. The UK, despite drops in all categories, still has top-three standing in the highly skilled, AI, and research categories. However, the UAE is quickly gaining on the UK in highly skilled and AI. Elsewhere in Europe, Spain and France posted gains in all categories. Germany gained as a target of research talent, landing in third place.Considerations for LeadersPrivate-sector leaders should ask if talent and talent development are truly top priorities for their organization. Consider whether they lack the right talent (for example, in digital or GenAI), and the consequent financial impact. Determine the areas in which they are unable to upskill current employees. Evaluate the employee value proposition—what promise can we make to highly skilled workers?Public-sector leaders of top talent destination countries and cities should explore whether they have a fit-for-purpose immigration system for highly skilled workers and how they can build state- and city-level innovation hubs to attract talent. Consider how they can use talent funds to incentivize companies to attract and retain talent?.Public-sector leaders of top talent origin countries should ask how they can upskill our workforces to find meaningful work at home and abroad. Explore whether they have a clear talent brand to attract and reattract talent, and how they can enhance their capacity to retain the best talent.The most consequential finding may be the one the data only hints at: the US is no longer extending its lead in AI talent. Whether that proves a temporary leveling or the start of a structural shift may become one of the defining questions of the next decade of the global technology race. About Our Research The BCG Top Talent Tracker covers highly skilled professionals, defined as individuals with at least a bachelor’s degree. In our most recent research, we collected real-time mobility data on 221 million individuals for the 12-month period ending December 31, 2025. This research draws from publicly available professional social network data and spans more than 200 destinations. Overall, updates since our last edition include an increase in the tracked population (from approximately 214 million to about 221 million), a more current data window (through the end of 2025), and the addition of a new category of talent: research talent, comprising individuals with doctorate degrees (PhDs).Our research zeroes in on three critical groups: STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics), AI (artificial intelligence), and research (PhD) professionals. Some individuals may be captured in multiple categories.STEM talent includes those working in research, engineering, IT, or product roles.AI talent focuses on individuals having at least one skill in artificial intelligence, generative AI, artificial intelligence for business, large language models, Microsoft Azure Machine Learning, autoML, Apache Hadoop, data science, computer vision, PyTorch, reinforcement learning, neural networks, MapReduce, or high-performance computing. Note: This definition excludes many with end-user knowledge of AI and focuses on those at the AI technology frontier.Research talent is defined as those holding a doctoral (PhD) degree.The analysis places a special emphasis on 34 priority destinations: Australia, Bangladesh, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, Denmark, Egypt, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the UAE, the UK, and the US.Download the slideshow
来源智库
波士顿咨询公司(BCG)

Boston Consulting Group

主办方: https://www.bcg.com

研究领域: 战略转型、数字化与AI、组织与人才、可持续发展、行业专项研究

简称: BCG

全球排名: 第9999位

智库简介:
波士顿咨询公司(BCG)成立于1963年,是全球顶级战略管理咨询 firm 之一,也是“MBB”三巨头的重要成员。作为企业战略领域的开创者,BCG以波士顿矩阵、经验曲线等经典理论闻名,现已发展为覆盖战略、数字化、组织、可持续发展及行业深度解决方案的综合智库。公司在全球50多个国家设有90多个办公室,自1990年进入大中华区以来,持续服务中外领先企业,致力于通过数据驱动和技术创新帮助客户实现长期价值增长。

报告信息

作者:

- Christophe Haesler

- Johann Harnoss

- Upasana Dey

- Viacheslav Romanov

- Christian Schwaerzler

- César Sánchez Fernández

发布时间:
2026-06-10

PDF页数: 13

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